Repost by Permission: Trump Believes Russian Victory In Ukraine Conflict Is Inevitable
July 16, 2025
Trump Believes Russian Victory In Ukraine Conflict Is Inevitable
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
An informative new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting top Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced: “The Kremlin urges all nations to push Kiev to reach a negotiated settlement in the Ukraine conflict and hopes President Donald Trump is privately doing so”, says Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov then revealed: “Kiev is derailing peace efforts by rejecting the Istanbul negotiations format, which Moscow still considers viable” and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned: “If Moscow’s willingness to negotiate is not met with a proper response, it will pursue its objectives through military means and the Ukraine conflict will continue…This position is unshakable”—all of which was joined with the news: “Explosions rocked Ukrainian cities overnight on 16 July as Russia once again launched waves of drones and missiles across the country…Russian forces launched 400 drones against Ukraine overnight, including up to 255 Shahed-type kamikaze drones, as well as one Iskander-M ballistic missile”.
A day after issuing a 50 day ultimatum to Russia to begin negotiations with Kiev, that refuses to talk to Moscow, and revealing he will sell American weapons to Europe to give to Ukraine, this report notes, President Donald Trump declared to reporters yesterday: “You know the side I’m on?…Humanity’s side…I want to stop the killing of thousands of people a week…I want to stop the killing…I want the killing to stop in the Ukraine-Russia war…That’s the side I’m on”—Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova quickly observed: “The European Union is funding the death of Ukraine by paying for weapons sent to Kiev”—United States Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker then assessed: “The reality right now in Europe is they cannot manufacture the armaments required on the battlefield of Ukraine”—and was an assessment followed by the news: “France and Italy will not take part in a new NATO-led initiative to finance the delivery of U.S. weapons to Ukraine”.
Along with a a senior White House official telling Politico yesterday: “President Trump believes that a Russian victory in the Ukraine conflict is inevitable”, this report continues, President Trump raged to reporters about former President Biden yesterday: “Why did he get us into this war?…You know why he got us in?…Because he’s a dummy, that’s why!…And you don’t cover it right…You should be asking that question to Biden…Why did he get us into this war?…Because he’s incompetent, and it would have never happened if I was President”—it was then revealed: “President Donald Trump squashed rumors on Tuesday that he would provide Ukraine with long-range missiles”—and it was also observed: “A recent mass layoff in the U.S. State Department included several senior analysts of the department’s intelligence arm, who were focusing on Russia and Ukraine”.
At the direction of President Putin, this report concludes, Chairman Fyodor Lukyanov of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy of Russia compiled the document “This Is The Fatal Flaw Of Trump’s Ukraine Strategy”, wherein he assessed:
Donald Trump’s recent comments on Ukraine were highly anticipated, especially given his habit of surprising even those who consider themselves seasoned observers.
His remarks on 14 July, delivered alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, were characteristically loud but ultimately underwhelming. That in itself should not be surprising.
Over the past six months, Trump’s style on major international issues has followed a familiar pattern. Ukraine is no exception.
At the heart of Trump’s approach lies a calculated strategy of noise. He generates maximum bluster to create the impression of strength and decisiveness. What follows is not action, but an endless repetition of simple slogans. Clarification is deliberately avoided, the aim being to appear both consistent and unpredictable. Behind this theater lies a reluctance to become truly entangled in any foreign conflict. Trump wants short, manageable involvement with low costs and quick exit ramps. Above all, he is not willing to challenge the mainstream consensus in Washington as deeply as he claims. For all the bluster, Trump remains tethered to the very ‘Deep State’ he rails against.
So, what did Trump actually propose? Not much. He suggested that America’s European allies should send Ukraine their old weapons systems – especially Patriot batteries – and then buy new ones from the United States, paying “100 percent”. That, for Trump, is the core of the plan: turn war into business. The logic is simple and familiar. Europe gets rid of its aging stock, Ukraine gets support, and America gets orders. But the practicalities remain vague: what systems, what timeline, what delivery mechanisms? These were left unclear.
Then there’s the question of exerting economic pressure on Russia. Trump approved a plan to impose 100 percent tariffs on Russian exports to third countries. This is a more moderate version of Senator Lindsey Graham’s 500 percent threat. The idea is to squeeze Russia economically without enforcing a full embargo. But here, too, the scheme is light on details. The White House will issue the duties and can cancel them at will. Implementation will be delayed by 50 days – standard Trump trade deal tactics. Nothing is final. Everything is leverage.
The real message is that Trump is still negotiating. He can’t reach a deal with Putin, but he wants to pressure Moscow without entering into an open confrontation. He still refuses to personally attack Putin, saying only that he is “very dissatisfied” and “disappointed”. That signals he is keeping his options open. He wants credit for any peace that might emerge but is unwilling to own the risks of deeper engagement.
From the Kremlin’s perspective, Washington no longer has the capacity to engage at the same level as it did in 2023–2024. The political will, financial resources, and strategic bandwidth simply aren’t there. Half-measures from the US won’t deliver results, though they may prolong the conflict. That is unfortunate, but not sufficient cause for Moscow to adjust its course.
Trump, for his part, doesn’t want to stay on the Ukraine file. He wants to move on – and fast. Many in the Pentagon share that view.
But the war will not end just because Washington wants to focus elsewhere.
[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]
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